So, where to begin? I think the best thing to do is assess team needs, and the needs, in my opinion at least are as follows and in this order:
1. FS
2. TE
3. OL
4. CB Depth
5. DE
Now, looking at that I know what you're going to say "Wait, you want Gresham and Safety is a more pressing need?" The answer is a simple Yes. And why, you may ask, because Gresham, in terms of talent and potential, is one of the handful of elite talent of this draft. If you don't know what I'm talking about, I'ms aying that there's typically 5-10 guys who have that ridiculous level of talent than there's a drop off. A lot of times, the top teams don't take those guys because they're A. Risky & B. typically not worth the money, especially if they don't pan out (I say this comparing their salaries to that of QBs, OTs & DL)
So, going one by one, this means we need to assess the best players of those positions (I'll list the top 3) along with where I have them listed in my latest big board:
FS - 1. Eric Berry (1) 2. Earl Thomas (13) 3. Nate Allen (36)
Now this is a list of INCREDIBLE FS talent. In most years, each of these guys are the best FS talents in the draft, but in this year, you're talking about essentially 3 FS's who may end up as first round picks, and that's incredibly high for a safety. Usually a safe pick, it is typically passed up because it's one of the less valued (financially speaking) positions on the field. I know that some of you are wondering where Taylor Mays is, but the fact is that he's a SS, and we currently have 3 SS's and 4 safeties who like to get beaten deep. Of these guys, Allen is probably a reach and Berry will be long gone (as I think he's the best player in this draft, period) and that only leaves Earl Thomas who I have going 17th overall in my latest mock draft. If Thomas is there, he'll probably be the pick, but I think he'll be gone unless we decide to trade up and nab him.
TE - 1. Jermaine Gresham (17) 2. Rob Gronkowski (47) 3. Aaron Hernandez (63)
Now we're talking about the #2 area of need and I believe that this class is deep, but there's only one person who's on the first tier and that's Jermaine Gresham. The guy can block and catch, although catching is his strong point. He spent the majority of his time on an explosive offense where he was not only one of the main contributors catching but also spent the majority of his time lined up on the line of scrimmage as a pro style TE. Gronkowski is an option as well, but in the 2nd round and Hernandez, to me, will be too much of a Coffman clone to be worthy of a pick. The main reason this is the biggest need is because, currently, our team's tight end situation is Coats, Coffman & Clark. A long snapper, a guy who's never seen a snap and a man who has shown what piss poor hands he has. Needless to say, Gresham is an immediate upgrade by leaps and bounds.
OL - 1. Russell Okung (5) 2. Bryan Bulaga (9) 3. Trent Williams (11) 4. Bruce Campbell (18) 5. Anthony Davis (19) 6. Mike Iupati (22)
Now this is where it starts to get intriguing. I think Anthony Davis is one of the premier guys and is a guy who could reasonably fall to us. In fact, I've seen mocks where everyone on this list except for Okung have been there when we pick. This is hard to gauge, but if Bulaga is there, I would have a hard time not picking him up and moving Whitworth inside. Williams can come in and play RT or RG as Bobby Williams is getting old. Iupati is a guard and I'm always against drafting a guard in the 1st and Campbell will probably be a Raider. I know everyone thinks we need a guard, but in my opinion, we could benefit more from a tackle and then moving Whitworth back inside than by taking a mauler and keeping Whitworth on the outside.
CB Depth - Joe Haden (8), Kyle Wilson (23), Patrick Robinson (27)
JSCL seems to think we're falling in love with some corners here, but I don't think we add to the CB depth chart til much later in the draft. The reason I list it is because we tried to play last year with, essentially, 3 guys (as one of the 4 was injured at most points in the season) and then using Crocker. We can upgrade in rounds 2-5.
DE - 1. Derrick Morgan (12) 2. Brandon Graham (16) 3. Sergio Kindle (23) 4. Carlos Dunlap (24)
Now this is an interesting predicament because we could conceivably have a great player at an area that has depth but quite a few question marks, as well. Odom has been injured constantly since he's signed on and Geathers is no longer a pass rusher. Fanene has shown he's good in spurts but disappears for long periods at a time and Rucker is a backup. Brandon Graham seems like the prototypical Marvin Lewis pick. Hell of a player who went to and performed extraordinarily well at the Senior Bowl, high character and a team leader. He's also a tweener, as is Kindle. Morgan could be re-united with his teammate The Giraffe, but that's a longshot and Dunlap...would scare all of us. Hopefully someone trades up ahead of us and takes Dunlap before we can (a la Derrick Harvey 2 years ago)
So, conceivably, that would give us the following prospects at 21:
Bryan Bulaga (8), Derrick Morgan (12), Earl Thomas (13), Brandon Graham (16), Jermaine Gresham (17), Bruce Campbell (18), Anthony Davis (19), Mike Iupati (22), Sergio Kindle (23) & Carlos Dunlap (24).
In my opinon, of those guys listed, these guys have a shot of being available when we pick:
Brandon Graham (16), Jermaine Gresham (17), Mike Iupati (21), Sergio Kindle (23) & Carlos Dunlap (24). #20 on my big board is Dan Williams, but he fits better in a 3-4 scheme and our DTs are worked out enough, although I could see us grabbing a DT later on in the draft.
So, what does this say about the draft? It says that it's hard to pick but fun to try. There are a lot of different ways we can go and I'll be happy because I have faith in this staff to make the right picks and maek the most out of the bad ones we get. Typically we do well with our first round picks, but unlike 2007, I don't foresee the #1 guy on our board dropping right to us so we may have to settle for a guy who will be a superstar.
Big Board & Mock Draft coming soon.
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